On Wednesday morning, sportsbook odds from platforms such as BetMGM continue to favor Pietro Parolin for the papacy at +225, followed by Luis Antonio Tagle at +325, as the Catholic Church starts the process of selecting its new leader. 

BetVictor, aimed at Canadian gamblers, lists Parolin at +225, Tagle at +300, and Matteo Zuppi at +450. 

The selection procedure takes place in conclave, a serious, confidential ceremony with 133 cardinals, all younger than 80, who discuss and then cast their votes for their preferred candidate. In the meantime, the globe anticipates the successor to Pope Francis, who passed away on April 21, observing the color of chimney smoke from the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City. Black smoke indicates that no candidate has obtained the required two-thirds of votes to become the new pontiff. The presence of white smoke signifies that the cardinals have chosen a new Pope. 

In the realm of betting, what is notable is the way enthusiasm for the election of a new Pope is highlighting the expansion of prediction markets such as Polymarket, the cryptocurrency trading platform, and Kalshi, as noted by Phillip Gray, a Canadian sportsbook trading analyst and the previous head of trading operations for Sports Interaction. 

 

Prediction Markets Driving Expansion 

On Wednesday morning, Grand View Research Inc., based in San Francisco, published a report projecting that the global sports betting market will grow to US$187.39 billion by 2030, partly fueled by the “increased adoption of AI and blockchain technologies to enhance prediction algorithms in betting platforms … expected to accelerate market growth throughout the forecast period.” 

Gray indicates that wagering on the election of a new Pope is “massive” within the prediction markets, and notes a compelling AI prediction perspective: although Parolin is the favorite to win and may get initial support (viewed as a consensus candidate for progressives and conservatives), his history in Vatican bureaucracy and past diplomatic issues could reduce his attractiveness in subsequent voting rounds. 

The AI forecast highlighted Tagle’s charm, infectious laughter and smile, along with his geographic representation, as well as the expectation that he probably wouldn’t reverse Pope Francis’ progressive reforms, which could benefit him if the conclave exceeds three votes. 

 

Sports Wagering: $187.39 Billion Industry by 2030 

The Asian continent comprises approximately 11% of the worldwide Catholic population, increasing by .6% from 2022 to 2023. 

The popularity of this specific Pope prop is undeniable, having surged since 1978 when the initial UK betting odds on the conclave were introduced. 

“We’re mostly looking [to the prediction market] as opposed to sportsbooks for ‘true’ liquidity,” Gray said. “Prediction markets now will generally have far more liquidity [stake] as there are far bigger ‘bet sizes’ and constant trading of shares as events draw closer, especially with these nontraditional events. Look at the past US election [of Donald Trump] – the polls were wrong and the markets were right. The sportsbook price on Trump was directly affected by the action on prediction markets, which were taking huge money on Trump.”

 

Tagle Rising in Some Bettors’ Eyes 

“If prediction markets were not around, you would have seen a much shorter price on [Kamala] Harris,” Gray added. “The action at sportsbooks was on her. They would have traditionally moved her price (given the polls) to offset what was a big liability on her. She closed at about +150. No way she should have been that price looking at polls. However, looking at the prediction markets that was the correct price.”

Gray notes that AI is dominating the sports betting sector, and the competition for Pope illustrates this shift.

"The last few months, with everything I’m seeing, it’s quite remarkable. AI predictions are going to be and have already started to be integrated into sites as an engagement feature.”

Through automated feeds and the simplicity of coding algorithms to adjust pricing in real-time, the only human involvement in “bookmaking” today is stake management, which involves traders monitoring a bet ticker and deciding to either increase or decrease someone’s limits, Gray noted. 

This afternoon, Polymarket shows Parolin with a 31% likelihood of becoming Pope ($1.46 million volume), while Tagle follows at 19% ($1.58 million volume). 

Oddschecker, the online sports betting odds comparison site based in the UK, reports that the selection of the new Pope is one of its most wagered events, with odds for the frontrunner Parolin ranging from +225 to +275. Tagle is fluctuating between +275 and +350.