Before Monday Night Football's matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers, there are a number of important lessons to be learned from NFL Week 14 from a betting standpoint.
One, the Kansas Chiefs, 6-7, are finished after losing 20-10 to the aggressive Houston Texans (8-5) at home last night. There’s no more dynasty talk there.
With a chance to sweep Buffalo this season, the New England Patriots, who are currently 11-2 and have won ten straight games, took yesterday off to prepare for their Sunday home game against the Bills (9-4). In Week 5, the Pats defeated the Bills 23-20 in Buffalo. The upcoming game of the week is that one.
Allen Delivers
I wish you luck there. Josh Allen, the MVP, gives any team an advantage. You weren't paying attention yesterday if that wasn't obvious. In a snowstorm in Buffalo, the Cincinnati Bengals under quarterback Joe Burrow led 21-11 at the half and 28-25 late in the fourth quarter, but the Bills quarterback nearly single-handedly defeated them. Burrow threw 25-36 for four touchdowns. He was unstoppable by the Bills' defense.
No issue for Allen, who rushed for 78 yards and threw for 251 yards, three touchdowns, and most notably a 40-yard run for a touchdown in the fourth quarter that put the Bengals ahead 28–25. The few errors Burrow made were then exploited by Christian Benford, who ran 63 yards for the game-winning score late in the fourth quarter after Burrow appeared to mishandle the ball while attempting a short dump pass. Buffalo never looked back after taking a 31-28 lead.
"Although Buffalo didn’t manage to cover their opening spread, they were a strong favorite in our in-game markets, drawing plenty of live betting interest,” said Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook. “Anytime these two teams combine for a high-scoring affair, it tends to be a win for bettors who stack popular Same Game Parlay legs. Points, player props, and touchdowns all came through in this matchup.”
Yesterday, the Green Bay Packers' Jordan Love destroyed the Chicago Bears 28–21. Love scored three touchdowns. They are now a clear favorite to win the NFC. The Arizona Cardinals were trounced 45-17 by the 10-3 Los Angeles Rams. In their two games, the Denver Broncos (11-2) and Seattle Seahawks (10-3) defeated the Las Vegas Raiders and Atlanta Falcons, respectively, to further solidify their positions at the top of the NFL power rankings. With a 27-22 victory, the Pittsburgh Steelers essentially ended the Baltimore Ravens' season thanks to a 23-34, 284-yard, one-touchdown performance from quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Changes in Super Bowl Odds
The Indianapolis Colts are probably out of the playoffs after quarterback Daniel Jones tore his Achilles. With a predicted wins-losses of 13.2-3.8, the Patriots lead ESPN's Football Power Index today. The Broncos (13.0-4.0), Rams (12.6-4.3), Seahawks (12.3-4.6), and Bills (11.7-5.3) complete the Top 5.
The Bills are giddy with anticipation that they won't have to contend with the Chiefs as they attempt to win a Super Bowl under Josh Allen. Watch the injury list updated. Head coach Sean McDermott has stated that standout defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who is now on injured reserve due to a biceps injury, may return once the playoffs begin. For a club that lacks run defense, that is a game-changer.
The Rams are still the favorite to win the Super Bowl at +400, according to theScore Bet. After improving from +900 to +800 to win the Super Bowl, the Packers are currently tied with the Seahawks for the second-best odds (Seattle had +800 going into Sunday). At +850, the Bills and Patriots are tied for the next-best odds. Buffalo started the day at +1100 and New England at +1000.
Denver dropped from +1100 to +1000, while the Eagles are still at +900 ahead of their Monday night game in Los Angeles. Following their victory in Kansas City on Sunday night, the Texans have risen from +2500 to +1300. The Chiefs, who plummeted from +1400 to win the Super Bowl going into Sunday to +5000 presently, were among the clubs that the Texans outperformed.
The best game for bettors is Seahawks vs. Falcons
The finest results for gamblers yesterday were the Packers' victory over the Bears and the Seahawks' 37-9 victory over Atlanta.
“The Seahawks continue to quietly dominate on both sides of the ball, and that consistency hasn’t gone unnoticed by our customers,” said Feazel. “Seattle’s blowout win over Atlanta was one of the most popular picks among bettors this morning, reinforcing the growing confidence in their ability to control games. The Packers were one of the more popular selections in the late afternoon slate, drawing strong support from bettors. Green Bay managed to hold on and cover the 6.5-point spread we had posted all week, rewarding those who backed them.”
Feazel continued, "The big win for the sportsbook was the Saint's stunning 24-20 victory over Tampa Bay (7-6)." The Saints have a 3-10 record. In the poor NFC South, the Bucs are currently just holding onto first place.
“Whenever a lower-tier team like the Saints pulls off a win, it tends to be a positive outcome for the book,” said Feazel. “Not only does it help on the straight bet side, but it also broke up a significant number of moneyline parlays that typically lean toward favorites like Tampa Bay. With the Steelers and Ravens (won by the Steelers 27-22), in the ongoing battle within the AFC North, we saw steady action on the Ravens throughout the week as bettors backed Baltimore heavily. However, with the game on the line, Pittsburgh came through in dramatic fashion, keeping both their playoff aspirations and divisional hopes alive.
Monday Evening Event
There are tight betting lines for the Eagles' game versus the Raiders in Los Angeles tonight. The NFC East's top team, the Eagles (8-4), just suffered a devastating 24-14 loss to the Bears during Thanksgiving Weekend. That game, the boo birds were out in full force. The Eagles have lost two straight games, but they are still in fine condition for their fifth consecutive postseason participation. According to reports, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will play tonight after undergoing surgery for a fracture in his non-throwing hand. With an 8-4 record in the AFC West, the Chargers are second only to the Broncos for a postseason berth.
The Eagles are currently at -135 (44% of bets, 61% of handle) and the Chargers are at +115 in ML at BetMGM. Saquon Barkley of the Eagles is the focus of bettors. Barkley is the Most Bet Anytime Touchdown Scorer (tickets) at +110, and the Eagles' running back is the Most Bet First Touchdown Scorer (tickets) at +550.
